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2026年第47卷第9期
- 摘要：Shiwandashan Mountain forms the watershed between the Xijiang River system and the rivers flowing into the Beibu Gulf. There are significant climatic differences between the northern and southern sides of the mountain. Precipitation characteristics on the northern and southern sides of the mountain were analysed using the precipitation concentration index (PCI) and the RClimDex software, based on daily precipitation data from eight meteorological stations during 1961—2023. The results showed that: ①From 1961 to 2023, the mean annual, daytime and night-time precipitation on the southern and northern sides of the mountain were 2 600.4 mm, 1 217.3 mm and 1 383.1 mm, respectively, indicating substantially higher precipitation on the southern side. Annual and daytime/night-time precipitation on the southern side showed a non-significant decreasing trend, whereas those on the northern side showed a non-significant increasing trend. ②The PCI on the southern side ranged from 17.2% to 18.2%, which was slightly higher than on the northern side (14.6% to 16.8%). From May to October, the southern and northern sides accounted for 79.1% and 72.9% of the annual precipitation total, respectively. The highest precipitation on the southern side occurred in July, reaching 562.9 mm and accounting for 21.1% of the annual total. On the northern side, the highest precipitation occurred in August, reaching 226.7 mm and accounting for 18.3% of the annual total. The lowest precipitation occurred in December on both sides, with values of 34.5 mm and 22.4 mm respectively, accounting for less than 2% of annual precipitation. The southern side's precipitation concentration index showed obvious interannual fluctuations, with an overall trend of 0.028% per year from 1961 to 2023. The interannual fluctuations of the precipitation concentration index on the northern side (10.7%~20.7%) were smaller than on the southern side and showed an overall downward trend of -0.012% per year from 1961 to 2023. However, trends on both sides did not pass the significance test (P > 0.05). ③Except for CDD (maximum consecutive dry days), all extreme precipitation indices on the southern side were higher than those on the northern side. Overall, the extreme precipitation indices on the southern side showed a decreasing trend, while those on the northern side showed an increasing trend. On the southern side, all indices except CDD exhibited negative trends, while CDD exhibited a positive trend (0.020 day/a). On the northern side, except for CWD, which exhibited a negative trend of -0.004 days per year, the other seven extreme precipitation indices exhibited positive trends. However, none of these trends were statistically significant, indicating that there were no significant changes in extreme precipitation on either the southern or northern sides of the Shiwandashan Mountain. Due to the terrain's blocking effect, there were significant differences in precipitation characteristics between the southern and northern sides of the Shiwandashan Mountain. This study provides a scientific basis for the efficient utilisation of water resources and disaster prevention and mitigation.关键词：daytime and nighttime precipitation;precipitation concentration degree;extreme precipitation;differences between north and south;Shiwandashan Mountain114|181|0更新时间：2026-09-25
- 摘要：Flooding is among the most frequent and damaging natural hazards worldwide. Accurate flood risk assessment and rigorous analysis of its driving factors are of critical importance for flood prevention and mitigation. Traditional flood risk assessments tend to focus only on proximity to rivers or a single hydrological indicator, lacking in-depth and objective consideration of the influence of other drainage network structure characteristics. To address this gap, this study develops a comprehensive four-dimensional flood risk evaluation framework that integrates hazard factors, hazard-forming environment, exposed elements, and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity. The framework is validated through a consolidated risk mapping procedure, and the resulting indicator set is combined with explainable machine learning algorithms. A suite of drainage network metrics—including drainage density, channel curvature, tributary development coefficient, and water surface ratio—alongside topographic and soil variables, is incorporated to systematically reveal how the water system structure interacts with other controls to shape spatial flood risk.The results indicate a distinct spatial pattern of flood risk across Hengyang City: ① Higher risk concentrates in the central, southeastern, and northeastern parts of the study area, while the western region exhibits relatively lower risk. At the administrative level, the municipal district of Hengyang, Hengshan County, and Changning City show notably elevated risk values. ② Explainable machine learning-based driver analysis reveals that flood risk in the Hengyang section of the Xiangjiang River Basin is predominantly influenced by elevation, drainage density, and soil moisture. Elevation exerts strong control via its effects on runoff generation and flow routing; densely dissected drainage networks accelerate runoff concentration and transmission, increasing inundation potential in downstream lowlands; high soil moisture reduces infiltration capacity and thereby elevates surface runoff and flooding likelihood. Importantly, the relationships between these predictors and flood risk exhibit threshold behavior rather than simple linear trends—risk escalates sharply once critical indicator values are exceeded. Identifying such thresholds enhances the practical utility of the results for flood risk zoning and management.Overall, by integrating a four-dimensional evaluation framework with explainable machine learning and explicit water system metrics, this study quantifies the coupled effects of drainage structure, topography, soil conditions, and human exposure, and pinpoints key thresholds and high-risk spatial patterns. These findings provide scientifically grounded guidance for flood hazard mapping, early warning prioritization, and targeted mitigation measures in the study area and in other basins with similar hydro-geomorphic and socio-environmental characteristics.关键词：explainable machine learning;flood risk;river network structure;threshold effects;Hengyang city106|719|0更新时间：2026-09-25
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Prediction of Future Runoff Changes in the Bahe River Basin Based on Different Scenarios from CMIP6 AI导读
摘要：Climate change profoundly affects regional water cycle processes; scientifically projecting future runoff changes is of great practical significance for watershed water resource planning and management, flood control and disaster mitigation, and ecological security. This study utilizes output data from six representative global climate models within the Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). A quantile delta bias correction method is applied to eliminate systematic model biases and improve the simulation capacity for extreme events, and a multi-model ensemble averaging approach is further employed to construct future climate scenario datasets, effectively reducing structural uncertainties inherent in individual models. On this basis, the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) distributed hydrological model is coupled to systematically evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and phased differentiation patterns of precipitation, temperature, and runoff in the Bahe River Basin from 2026 to 2100 under three typical emission pathways: SSP126 (low-forcing sustainable development scenario), SSP245 (medium-forcing intermediate development scenario), and SSP585 (high-forcing conventional development scenario). The results show that under all three scenarios, future precipitation in the basin exhibits an increasing trend, with the increment gradually growing over time; under the SSP585 scenario, the precipitation increase reaches as high as 20.8% in the far future, and interannual variability intensifies significantly with rising emission strength. Both maximum and minimum temperatures show continuous increases, reaching 4.56 ℃ and 4.28 ℃, respectively, under the SSP585 scenario in the far future, with notably increased temperature variability under the high-emission pathway. Runoff exhibits pronounced phased differentiation in its interannual variation: differences among scenarios are small in the near future but become increasingly pronounced in the medium to far future. In the far future, mean runoff values under SSP126 and SSP585 reach 11.05 m³/s and 11.26 m³/s, respectively, showing upward trends, while runoff under SSP245 exhibits stable fluctuations. The intra-annual distribution of runoff follows a typical unimodal pattern, with the peak occurring in September; under the high-emission scenario, runoff increases during the wet season (May-September) are more prominent, whereas differences among scenarios during the dry season are relatively small. Comprehensive analysis shows that changes in climatic factors in the Bahe River Basin are closely related to the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions. The high-emission pathway significantly exacerbates interannual variability and extremity of climatic factors and runoff, thereby increasing flood risk, while the low-emission pathway effectively suppresses the increase in variability and maintains a relatively stable water cycle. The impacts of different emission scenarios on intra-annual runoff distribution are more pronounced during the wet season, providing a "scenario-response" decision-making basis for adaptive water resources management and flood regulation in the basin.关键词：SWAT model;CMIP6;runoff;climate change;Bahe River Basin25|10|0更新时间：2026-09-25 - 摘要：To elucidate the geomorphological evolution patterns and dynamic mechanisms of the sandbar at the Wanquan River Estuary under extreme flood conditions, and to explore scientifically sound and feasible flood control measures as well as protection and management strategies for the Yudai Shoal in the Wanquan River Basin, this study establishes a two-dimensional, high-precision hydrodynamic-sediment coupling model for the estuary. The model parameters and boundary conditions are calibrated based on the actual topographical and hydrological characteristics of the study area.Model validation is conducted using measured flood marks and estuarine mouth width data obtained from field surveys during Typhoon "Tanmei" in 2024. The results demonstrate that the model possesses high simulation accuracy and can effectively reproduce the hydrodynamic processes and geomorphological evolution of the Wanquan River Estuary under flood conditions. Focusing on a 50-year return period flood—a typical extreme hydrological scenario in the basin—the study simulates and analyzes the spatiotemporal variations in hydrodynamic factors such as flow velocity and water level, as well as the dynamic evolution of geomorphic features including erosion, deposition, and terrain elevation changes during flood discharge. Furthermore, the research scope is extended to floods with return periods ranging from 5 to 50 years, systematically examining the erosion and deposition response patterns of the estuary entrance under different flood magnitudes. Quantitative analysis is also conducted to assess the impacts of two key factors—initial mouth width and total flood volume—on flood water levels in the river channel.The results indicate that the geomorphological evolution of the Wanquan River Estuary exhibits a typical cyclic pattern characterized by "flood scouring and widening—tidal wave siltation and narrowing," driven by the combined action of fluvial and marine dynamics. Against the backdrop of a continuous reduction in upstream sediment transport, the estuary mouth may lose the necessary sediment supply for siltation and narrowing, potentially leading to a long-term, gradual widening trend. Additionally, the width of the estuary mouth shows an approximately linear positive correlation with flood peak discharge. The scouring depth of the Yudai Shoal, a key geomorphic unit of the estuary, is primarily regulated by the duration of flood overtopping, with scouring intensity increasing as overtopping time extends. The initial mouth width significantly influences water levels in the near-estuary reach, with the narrowest initial width leading to a pronounced rise in water levels in this section. However, its impact on the upper river channel is limited and gradually diminishes along the course. Under the conditions considered in this study, total flood volume has a negligible effect on water level changes throughout the river channel.These findings provide important theoretical support and technical references for regional flood control planning, optimization of estuary regulation measures, and ecological protection of the Yudai Shoal in the Wanquan River Basin. They have been successfully applied to the revision and enhancement of the basin's flood control plans, demonstrating substantial engineering application value and practical significance.关键词：extreme flood;geomorphological evolution;hydrodynamic-sediment coupled simulation;scour pattern;Wanquan River estuary67|140|0更新时间：2026-09-25
- 摘要：To investigate the contradictions between ecological flow differences and water environment carrying capacity in seasonal rivers in Southwest China's mountainous areas, this study takes the Nanting River as the research subject and employs multiple assessment methods combined with a one-dimensional longitudinal model to construct a dynamic coupling system of ecological flow drivers and water environment carrying capacity constraints. It analyzes the ecological flow, corresponding water environment capacity, and carrying capacity at three typical cross-sections. The results show: ①Ecological flow results calculated by different methods exhibit significant differences, with flow variations having a decisive impact on water environment capacity and carrying capacity evaluations; the extreme ratio of water environment capacity under different ecological flow conditions ranges from 1.7 to 2.8 times. The determination of river ecological flow should comprehensively consider water environment functions and influencing factors of carrying capacity, as relying solely on single-method calculations demonstrates partiality. ②The variability in ecological flow calculation methods highlights that, under determined river morphology, gradient, roughness, and sediment characteristics, flow rate is a critical variable. ③The Nanting River shows significant annual and monthly variations in water quality, with relatively low monthly excellent water quality proportions. The water environment quality in the mid-lower reaches is significantly better than that in the upper reaches, primarily influenced by total phosphorus (TP), BOD5, NH3-N, and CODMn. ④Based on optimal water environment carrying capacity, differentiated ecological flows for the Dawen, GLH, and DWJ sections were determined as 2.77 m³/s (FDC method), 12.6 m³/s (Qp method), and 25.3 m³/s (7Q10 method), respectively, accounting for 21.5%, 14.6%, and 15.4% of the multi-year average flows at each section. The satisfaction level of the river section's ecological flow determined by daily average flow is 98.5%–100%. ⑤With a 0.8-fold water environment capacity as a warning threshold and simulated water quality concentration evaluations, key water quality indicators for each section were identified: total phosphorus, BOD5, and NH3-N for the Dawen section; and total phosphorus for the GLH and DWJ sections. ⑥Under optimal water environment carrying capacity conditions, the differentiated ecological flow determination for the assessed river section demonstrates reliable outcomes, with corresponding water environment capacities deemed appropriate.Water management authorities should implement differentiated ecological flow scheduling strategies based on hydrological, water quality, and ecological function variations across sections, implementing segmented ecological flow control. When ecological flow requirements are unmet, enhanced engineering scheduling should be coordinated with basin-wide water resource allocation to ensure ecological flow and water environment carrying capacity synergies. The research findings provide reference for regional river ecological protection and water pollution prevention.关键词：Seasonal rivers;ecological flow;Water environment capacity;Water environmental carrying capacity;One-dimensional longitudinal model;Nanting River46|228|0更新时间：2026-09-25
- 摘要：Accurate monthly precipitation forecasting is crucial for the scientific management and optimal allocation of water resources, with significant implications for reservoir operation and agricultural irrigation. However, under the combined influence of climate change and human activities, monthly precipitation series often exhibit complex nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics. Traditional linear statistical models and single machine learning approaches frequently fail to capture their dynamic evolution patterns, leading to limited prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, this study proposes a hybrid forecasting model that integrates Time-Varying Filtering-based Empirical Mode Decomposition (TVF-EMD) with Support Vector Regression (SVR). TVF-EMD, an adaptive signal decomposition technique, effectively mitigates the mode-mixing problem inherent in conventional Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) by decomposing the non-stationary precipitation series into relatively stable subcomponents. Independent SVR models are then developed to predict each subcomponent, and the final monthly precipitation forecast is obtained by aggregating these predictions. Using monthly precipitation data from 1951 to 2020 collected at the Ganxian Meteorological Station in Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province, China, we evaluate and compare the predictive performance of four models: Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), SVR, EMD-SVR, and the proposed TVF-EMD-SVR. The results demonstrate that SVR significantly outperforms MLR in characterizing the nonlinear features of monthly precipitation. By introducing the "decomposition-prediction-reconstruction" framework, the EMD-SVR model achieves a 92.50% improvement in the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) coefficient compared to the standalone SVR model. Furthermore, by employing TVF-EMD for decomposition, the TVF-EMD-SVR hybrid model yields a further substantial reduction in prediction error. Specifically, compared to the EMD-SVR model, TVF-EMD-SVR reduces the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error by 67.83% and 67.67%, respectively, attaining an NSE value of 0.93. These findings confirm that SVR exhibits strong adaptability for nonlinear monthly precipitation prediction, while TVF-EMD more effectively alleviates the adverse impacts of non-stationarity. The integration of these two methods significantly enhances prediction accuracy. The proposed TVF-EMD-SVR hybrid model provides a reliable methodological framework for monthly precipitation forecasting under complex climatic conditions and can deliver more accurate forecasts to support decision-making in regional reservoir operation and agricultural production.关键词：Monthly precipitation series;TVF-EMD;SVR;Hybrid prediction model;Ganzhou, Jiangxi Province48|279|0更新时间：2026-09-25
- 摘要：Tropical monsoon climate regions present significant challenges for reservoir inflow forecasting due to high-intensity rainfall and rapid runoff generation, which produce strongly nonlinear flood processes that often limit the accuracy of traditional physical models. This study investigates the applicability of a deep learning approach to address these nonlinear forecasting problems, using the Gezhen Reservoir in Hainan Province as the study area. A data-driven forecasting framework based on the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network was developed. A comprehensive 16-year (2010—2025) hourly dataset was compiled, integrating rainfall observations from seven individual stations, basin areal rainfall, upstream outflow from the Daguangba Reservoir, and the interval inflow to the Gezhen Reservoir. Lagged correlation analysis was conducted to quantify the relationship between input variables and target inflow, identifying an optimal time window of 7 hours. A total of 60 historical flood events were selected, with 48 events (80%) used for training and 12 events (20%) for testing. Model performance was evaluated using the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and a qualification rate based on flood control standards. To interpret the model's predictive mechanism, the Permutation Feature Importance (PFI) method was employed to quantify the contribution of each input factor. Quantitative evaluation demonstrates that the LSTM model achieves high accuracy, with an average NSE of 0.96 on the test set. The model's performance was further validated through simulation of extreme typhoon-induced flood events, exemplified by Typhoon Yagi, where the NSE exceeded 0.96. The relative error of peak discharge was controlled within 7.5%, and the error in peak occurrence time was within ±1 hour. Feature importance analysis identifies antecedent inflow and upstream outflow as the dominant factors, reflecting strong hydrological inertia and hydraulic connectivity. The differentiated contributions of individual rainfall stations further verify the model's capability to capture the spatial heterogeneity of the basin's runoff generation processes. The findings demonstrate that the proposed LSTM model effectively overcomes the instability issues associated with traditional methods under extreme conditions, providing a highly accurate technical approach for reservoir flood forecasting in tropical monsoon regions.关键词：deep learning;Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM);typhoon rainstorm;Rainfall-runoff simulation;Lag analysis;Gezhen Reservoir68|463|0更新时间：2026-09-25
- 摘要：Urban waterlogging occurs when surface water cannot be drained in a timely manner due to heavy rainfall. This issue not only disrupts residents' travel but also causes significant economic losses. With rapid urbanization, waterlogging and its associated disaster impacts pose a great challenge to urban safety. The assessment of socio-economic losses caused by urban waterlogging often requires detailed classification of urban land use in the inundated area. Shenzhen, as one of the core cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), is densely populated and economically developed. Under extreme climatic conditions, urban waterlogging has become a common issue. This paper takes the western part of Shenzhen city as a typical study area and simulates waterlogging inundation processes under multiple scenarios, including design rainstorms with return periods of 2a, 5a, 10a, 20a, 50a and 100a, and multiple engineering situations such as reservoir flood discharge, and deep tunnel drainage. A one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) coupled model of urban waterlogging was used for these simulations. By classifying urban land use and assets such as buildings and cars according to different land use types during the inundation processes, this study conducted a refined asset loss assessment by establishing multiple types of inundation depth-asset loss curves. The results demonstrate that as the design return period of rainstorm increases from 2a to 100a, the disaster-affected area significantly expands from 3.98 km2 to 6.75 km2, and asset losses dramatically increase from 255-million-yuan to 912-million-yuan, Inundation depths are primarily less than 0.5 m accounting for 54.1% -64.7% of the total area affected. Roads make up the majority of the inundation land use types, accounting for 90.2% -91.5%. Asset losses are mainly concentrated in residential land and vehicles, accounting for 25.8%-35.2% and 18.0%-33.7%, respectively. Furthermore, the study evaluates the impact of water engineering plans: the inundated area and asset losses increase by 6.1% and 5.6%, respectively, under reservoir flood discharge scenarios, while asset losses decrease by 21.0% when considering deep tunnel drainage projects. These findings provide a scientific basis for assessing waterlogging losses and implementing local flood prevention and mitigation strategies in coastal cities under multiple extreme climate conditions and engineering plans.关键词：waterlogging simulation;Asset loss;Design rainstorm;land use;deep tunnel engineering;Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area69|327|0更新时间：2026-09-25
- 摘要：To address the anti-seepage challenges of concrete structures in water conveyance tunnels within large-scale hydraulic projects, this study systematically investigates the interfacial bonding and impermeability performance of concrete segments treated with various protective coating combinations. Using C55 precast concrete segments as the substrate, the research focuses on composite systems consisting of a transparent water-based penetrating waterproof primer and a solvent-free epoxy topcoat. The performance was evaluated through pull-off tests, hydrostatic pressure penetration tests, and Rapid Chloride Migration (RCM) tests. The experimental results indicate that the hydrophobic film formed by the primer on the concrete surface effectively reduced chloride ion absorption by 74.2% to 100%, demonstrating excellent anti-chloride penetration capability. However, this primer layer significantly compromised the adhesion strength of the epoxy topcoat. Chemical incompatibility was identified between Topcoat MC and the tested primers, leading to interfacial failure and bond strengths below the design requirement (≥3 MPa). In contrast, Topcoats MA and MB showed good compatibility with the primers, achieving stable adhesion strengths between 4.54 and 5.72 MPa, with failure occurring predominantly within the concrete substrate. Regarding impermeability, all coating systems incorporating an epoxy topcoat (with a dry film thickness ≥400 μm) completely resisted water penetration under a hydrostatic pressure of 1.2 MPa for 24 hours. Conversely, samples coated with primer alone showed water penetration depths similar to uncoated controls, indicating insufficient resistance under high pressure. Based on these findings and considering the principle of "external anti-corrosion and internal anti-seepage," an optimized protection strategy is proposed. This strategy involves applying a single layer of solvent-free epoxy coating on the segment's extrados (outer arc surface) for robust physical barrier protection and a single layer of penetrating crystalline waterproofing material on the intrados (inner arc surface) for enhanced internal impermeability and chloride resistance. This study provides a scientific basis for the durability design of protective coatings for water conveyance tunnels under complex service environments.关键词：water conveyance tunnel;Water-based Penetrating Waterproof Primer;Solvent-free Epoxy Topcoat;adhesion strength;Impermeability Performance40|141|0更新时间：2026-09-25
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About Journal
Governing Body: Ministry of Water Resources of P. R. China
Sponsor: Pearl River Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources
Publisher: Editorial Office of Pearl River
Address: No. 80, Tianshou Road, Tianhe District, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
ISSN 1001-9235
CN 44-1037/TV
Editor-in-Chief: XU Jiashi
Executive Editor-in-Chief: LIU Bin
Deputy Editor-in-Chief: LIU Yanju, ZUO Qiting, CEN Weijun, HAN Yuping, YANG Fang
Executive Deputy Editor-in-Chief: ZHENG Bin, LI Zehua
Tel: 020-87117424; 020-87117952
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- 0 1 Spatiotemporal Evolution and Future Projections of Compound Heat-Drought and Heat-Heavy Precipitation Extremes in the Pearl River Basin 170
- 0 2 Remote Sensing Survey of Chlorophyll-a Concentration in River-Type Reservoirs Based on GF-1 Image Data: Taking Feilaixia-Changhu Reservoir Area as an Example 145
- 0 3 Ecological Flow Research on Small and Medium-sized Rivers in Mountainous Areas with Staggered Weirs 142
- 0 4 Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Extreme Rainfall in Typical Urban Agglomerations of China 116
- 0 5 Analysis of Ecological Flow Threshold in Channel of the Tabu River Basin Based on Improved Intra-annual Distribution Method 112
- 0 6 Uneven Distribution and Variation Patterns of Annual Precipitation in Guangzhou from 1980 to 2021 109
- 0 7 Happy River Evaluation Method Based on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs 101
- 0 8 Hydrodynamic Effects of River-Lake System Connectivity on Ecological Restoration of Urban Rivers: A Case Study of Liede River 95
- 0 9 Research on Evaluation of Industrial Water Use Efficiency and Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity in Guangdong Province 94
- 10 Clogging Patterns of Urban Road Storm-Water Inlets Caused by Floating Debris 91
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