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人民珠江 ›› 2021, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (12): 42-49,89.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2021.12.005

• 粤港澳大湾区水安全保障专题 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于Copula函数的水库强风暴雨遭遇分析研究

蔡奇霖1, 徐丹丽2, 王兆礼1, 赖成光1*   

  1. 1.华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广东 广州 510640;
    2.广东省水利电力勘测设计研究院有限公司,广东 广州 510635
  • 收稿日期:2021-08-31 出版日期:2021-12-25 发布日期:2021-12-28
  • 通讯作者: 赖成光,男,主要从事水文水资源方向研究工作。E-mail:laichg@scut.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:蔡奇霖,男,主要从事水工结构方向工作。E-mail:cql702711@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    广东省水利科技创新项目(2020-28)

Encounter Analysis between Strong Wind and Rainstorm of Reservoir Based on Copula Functions

CAI Qilin1, XU Danli2, WANG Zhaoli1, LAI Chengguang1*   

  1. 1. School of Civil Engineering & Transportation,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640,China;
    2. Guangdong Hydropower Planning & Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510635,China
  • Received:2021-08-31 Online:2021-12-25 Published:2021-12-28

摘要: 为探讨沿海地区大型水库强风暴雨遭遇问题,以广东省台山大隆洞水库为研究案例,分别采用P-III、Gamma和GEV 3种极值分布模型对3组降雨极值和1组最大风速序列进行边缘分布拟合,通过Archimedean Copula函数和Kendall分布函数分析最大风速和不同时段最大降雨量的重现期水平,计算了二者联合分布下的“或”“且”和Kendall重现期及其最可能的风速和降雨量设计值。结果表明:大隆洞水库年最大日降雨呈显著上升趋势(p<0.05),年最大风速则总体呈下降趋势,而风速和暴雨序列的相关性极弱,但出现年最大风速和年最大暴雨遭遇的情况。联合分布的“或”“且”和Kendall重现期推算的风速和降雨量低于单变量边缘分布的结果。当采用100年一遇的“或”联合分布的最大风速所计算出来的主坝高程比实际高程要高,建议未来水库大坝高程设计应考虑强风和暴雨遭遇的情况。

关键词: 遭遇分析, 边缘分布, Copula函数, Kendall重现期, 大隆洞水库

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to discuss the encounter problem between strong wind and rainstorm in the coastal reservoirs.The Dalongdong Reservoir,located in Taishan of Guangdong Province,was taken as a study case.The P-III,Gamma and GEV functions were used to fit the marginal distributions between three groups of rainfall extremes and one group of maximum wind speed sequence respectively.The values of different return period of the maximum wind speed and maximum rainfall in different periods were also analyzed by Archimedean Copula and Kendall function.The return periods of ‘or’,‘and’,and Kendall return period as well as the most likely design values of wind speed and rainfall were calculated.The results showed that the annual maximum daily rainfall showed a significant uptrend (p<0.05) while the yearly maximum wind speed showed a downtrend.The correlation between wind speed and rainstorm sequence was extremely weak while maximum wind speed had encountered the annual maximum rainfall during the analysis period.The values of wind speed and rainfall based on ‘or’,‘and’,and Kendall return period were smaller than that of univariate marginal distribution,while the values of “or” were larger than those with univariate marginal distribution.The elevation of main dam based on “or” joint distribution of 100a return period was larger than the actual elevation.Accordingly,this study suggested considering the encounter between strong wind and rainstorm when designing the elevation of reservoir dam in the future.

Key words: encounter analysis, marginal distribution, Copula function, Kendall return period, Dalongdong Reservoir

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