欢迎访问《人民珠江》官方网站,今天是 分享到:

人民珠江 ›› 2021, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (12): 24-29,41.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2021.12.003

• 粤港澳大湾区水安全保障专题 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于Copula函数的深圳市雨潮遭遇风险分析

石赟赟1, 姚航斌1,2, 万东辉1, 郑新乾3   

  1. 1.珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院,广东 广州 510630;
    2.河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京 210098;
    3.珠江水利委员会水文局,广东 广州 510611
  • 收稿日期:2021-04-28 出版日期:2021-12-25 发布日期:2021-12-28
  • 作者简介:石赟赟,女,研究方向为流域水资源管理与规划、防洪排涝计算。E-mail:yunyun_shi@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(52079005);广州市科技计划(202002030471);江苏省水利科技项目(2017006、2018020)

Encounter Risk Analysis of Rainfall and Tide in Shenzhen Based on Copula Function

SHI Yunyun1, YAO Hangbin1,2, WAN Donghui1, ZHENG Xinqian3   

  1. 1. Pearl River Water Resources Commission of Pearl River Water Resources Research Institute,Guangzhou 510630,China;
    2. College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;
    3. Pearl River Water Resources Commission of Ministry of Water Resources,Guangzhou 510611,China
  • Received:2021-04-28 Online:2021-12-25 Published:2021-12-28

摘要: 极端暴雨与潮位遭遇的灾害将导致滨海城市的洪涝加剧。为了探究滨海城市雨潮遭遇对城市防洪排涝的影响,基于深圳市赤湾站1967—2018年年最大1 d降雨量及其相应潮位资料,采用Copula函数构建年最大1 d降雨量和其相应潮位的联合分布模型,计算分析了深圳市雨潮遭遇的同现风险、防涝风险、条件风险和组合风险。结果表明,深圳市雨潮遭遇的风险较小,其中超标准(100年一遇)降雨与超标准(200年一遇)潮位的同现与组合风险概率极小,仅为0.12%和0.09%;发生超标准降雨或潮位的概率为1.09%,小于100年一遇,且在发生超标准降雨的条件下,遭遇超标准潮位的概率较大,为12.33%,同时,随着降雨量级的增大,遭遇风险也随之增大,因此,在城市防洪潮排涝规划、设计中,应重点关注与防范。

关键词: Copula函数, 雨潮遭遇, 风险分析, 深圳市

Abstract: The disasters of encounter of extreme rainstorm and high tide level will aggravate the flood in coastal cities.In order to explore the impact of the encounter of rainstorm and tide on flood control and drainage in coastal cities,based on the annual maximum 1 day rainfall and its corresponding tide level data of Chiwan Station in Shenzhen from 1967 to 2018,the Copula function is used to construct a joint distribution model of annual maximum 1 day rainfall and its corresponding tide level,and the co-occurrence risk,the flood control risk,the condition risk and the combination risk of rain and tide in Shenzhen are calculated and analyzed.The results show that the risk of the encounter of rain and tide in Shenzhen is small,and the co-occurrence and combination risk probability of rainfall whose return period greater than 100 years and tidal level whose return period greater than 200 years are only 0.12% and 0.09%.The probability of the occurrence of rainfall or tide exceeding the standard magnitude is 1.09%,and its return period is less than 100 years.When the rainfall exceeds the standard magnitude,the probability of encountering an over-standard tide level is greater,with a probability of 12.33%.At the same time,with the increase of rainfall,the risk will also increase.Therefore,in the planning and design of flood and tide prevention and drainage in cities,the focus should be on attention and prevention.

Key words: Copula function, rainfall and tide encounter, risk analysis, Shenzhen City

中图分类号: