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人民珠江 ›› 2021, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4): 10-18,63.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2021.04.002

• 应用基础 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于Copula函数的降雨随机模拟方法在古黄河流域的应用

潘奇鑫, 李帆*, 刘萍, 李春秀   

  1. 扬州大学水利科学与工程学院,江苏 扬州 225009
  • 收稿日期:2020-10-27 出版日期:2021-04-25 发布日期:2021-04-20
  • 通讯作者: 李帆,男,主要从事水文统计、风险分析等方向研究。E-mail:lifan@yzu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:潘奇鑫,男,主要从事水文水资源方向研究。E-mail:472081650@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    中国博士后科学基金(2019M651976)

Application of Rainfall Stochastic Simulation Based on Copula Function in Ancient Yellow River Basin

PAN Qixin, LI Fan*, LIU Ping, LI Chunxiu   

  1. College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou 225009,China
  • Received:2020-10-27 Online:2021-04-25 Published:2021-04-20

摘要: 以江苏省宿迁市古黄河流域上游宿迁闸站、中游刘老涧站、下游新袁闸站3个水文站39年(1980—2018年)的月降雨量资料为例,利用二维Copula函数进行月降雨量随机模拟。基于Copula函数建立3个站点两两间月降雨量的联合分布,结合Gibbs抽样法实现3站的月降雨量随机模拟,通过比较实测和模拟的月降雨量,对模拟预测的有效性进行验证。结果表明,上、中、下游降雨量之间具有较强的相关性,二维Copula函数可有效建立研究区域相邻站点间的相关性结构,可用于该流域降雨量的随机模拟,为该方法在其他领域的应用提供参考。

关键词: Copula函数, 月降雨量, 随机模拟, Gibbs抽样

Abstract: Taking the monthly rainfall data of the three hydrological stations,namely Suqian Station at the upper reaches,Liulaojian Station at the middle reaches,and Xinyuan Station at the lower reaches of the ancient Yellow River in Suqian City,Jiangsu Province for 39 years (1980—2018) as the example,this paper conducts the stochastic simulation of monthly rainfall based on the Copula function,establishes the joint distribution of monthly rainfall for two of 3 stations,realizes the stochastic simulation of monthly rainfall of the three stations by Gibbs sampling,and verifies the effectiveness of the simulation prediction by comparing the measured and simulated monthly rainfall.The results show that there is a strong correlation between the rainfall in the upper,middle and lower reaches.The two-dimensional Copula function can effectively establish the correlation structure between adjacent stations in the study area,and serve for the stochastic simulation of rainfall in the basin,which provides a reference for its application in other basins.

Key words: Copula function, monthly rainfall, stochastic simulation, Gibbs sampling

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