基于非对称极值Copula的设计暴雨过程线分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2020.02.012

人民珠江 ›› 2020, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (2): 85-91.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2020.02.012

基于非对称极值Copula的设计暴雨过程线分析

陈子燊^1,2, 赵玲玲³, 杨兴⁴

1. 中山大学新华学院,广东广州 510520;
2. 中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东广州 510275;
3. 广州地理研究所,广东广州 510070;
4. 安徽理工大学地球与环境学院,安徽淮南 232000

收稿日期:2019-08-15 出版日期:2020-02-25 发布日期:2020-03-06
作者简介:陈子燊,男,主要从事水文气候极端要素概率分布与风险分析、气候变化与极端气候要素时空分布及机理以及河口近岸水动力与工程应用研究。E-mail:eesczs@mail.sysu.edu.cn

Analysis of Design Rainstorm Hydrograph Based on Asymmetrical Extreme-value Copula

CHEN Zishen^1,2, ZHAO Lingling³, YANG Xing⁴

1. Xinhua College of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510520, China;
2. School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
3. Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, China;
4. School of Earth and Environment, Anhui University of Science & Technology, Huainan 232000, China

Received:2019-08-15 Online:2020-02-25 Published:2020-03-06

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以曹江流域1967—2013年历年最大1 h雨量(雨峰)、最大6 h雨量和最大24 h雨量为样本,采用非对称Archimedean Gumbel-Hougaard极值Copula构建3个时段雨量联合分布的典型台风暴雨过程线。主要结论如下:①采用3个历时雨量联合分布推求的曹江流域设计暴雨值大于2个时段联合分布和单一时段设计暴雨值,同频率放大的设计暴雨过程线,整体效果相对最优,为设计雨型的研究提供了新思路与方法;②按24 h最大雨量选取的主峰靠后的多峰暴雨过程危险率最大,构建的典型设计暴雨过程线最具代表性;③以三时段雨量组合的“或”联合重现期作为流域的设计标准适用于应对此流域雨洪风险。

关键词: 非对称极值Copula函数, 设计暴雨过程线, “或”重现期, 雨型

Abstract: Taking the maximum 1-hour rainfall (rain peak), maximum 6-hour rainfall and maximum 24-hour rainfall in the Caojiang River Basin from 1967 to 2013 as samples, this paper establishes the typical typhoon rainstorm hydrograph for join trainfall distribution of three periods based on the asymmetric Archimedean Gumbel-Hougaard extreme-value copula. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The design rainstorm value in Caojiang River Basin calculated through the joint rainfall distribution of three periods is larger than that calculated through the joint rainfall distribution of two periods and a single period. The design rainstorm hydrograph amplified at the same frequency has the optimal overall effect, which provides a new idea for the research of design rainstorm pattern. (2) According to the maximum 24-hour rainfall, the risk rate of the multi-peak rainstorm process with late main peak is the highest, and the typical design rainstorm hydrograp accordingly is the most representative. (3) The design criteria of the joint rainfall of‘OR’ return period with combination of three periods are applicable to the control of rainfall and flood in the river basin.

Key words: asymmetrical extreme-value copula, design rainstorm hydrograph, ‘OR’return period, rainstorm pattern

中图分类号:

TV122

陈子燊, 赵玲玲, 杨兴. 基于非对称极值Copula的设计暴雨过程线分析[J]. 人民珠江, 2020, 41(2): 85-91.

CHEN Zishen, ZHAO Lingling, YANG Xing. Analysis of Design Rainstorm Hydrograph Based on Asymmetrical Extreme-value Copula[J]. Pearl River, 2020, 41(2): 85-91.

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基于非对称极值Copula的设计暴雨过程线分析

Analysis of Design Rainstorm Hydrograph Based on Asymmetrical Extreme-value Copula

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